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电子产业面“传日系大厂太阳诱电”又传暂停接单,MLCC临缺粮危机
4月27日消息,据台湾媒体报道称,日本MLCC(多层陶瓷电容器)大厂太阳诱电宣布全面停接消费类电容件新订单,并通知客户旗下全系列订单交期延长,并表示无法保证新单能按时交货。目前,日系被动件原厂交货周期普遍在16周左右,车规级被动件的订单交货周期最快也要4个月。值得注意的是,自今年以来,MLCC供应持续紧张,头部的MLCC大厂纷纷涨价。3月1日,三星电机部分MLCC价格已上调10%-26%;3月上旬
2021/04/30

4月27日消息,据台湾媒体报道称,日本MLCC(多层陶瓷电容器)大厂太阳诱电宣布全面停接消费类电容件新订单,并通知客户旗下全系列订单交期延长,并表示无法保证新单能按时交货。目前,日系被动件原厂交货周期普

遍在16周左右,车规级被动件的订单交货周期最快也要4个月。


1619765092112214.png


值得注意的是,自今年以来,MLCC供应持续紧张,头部的MLCC大厂纷纷涨价。3月1日,三星电机部分MLCC价格已上调10%-26%;3月上旬,被动元件龙头国巨对客户端发出涨价通知,芯片电阻、MLCC预计调涨

10%-20%,4月1日执行;3月中旬,华新科发布涨价通知,宣布将上调MLCC报价30%-40%。

 

行业分析认为,本轮涨价主要是在上游原材料涨价的推动下,以及下游5G手机需求量超预期、加上车市复苏、电动车市场持续高速增长所致;此外,2021 年被动元件需求将保持高景气,行业将迎来量价齐升的火热态势。

 

不过,据日本经济新闻报道,MLCC大厂村田制作所社长中岛规巨针对智能手机订单状况敲响警钟。其表示,中美贸易摩擦在撼动智能手机行业的同时,也在扭曲零部件市场。“中国生产了大量5G智能手机。与实体经济需求

相比,有订单过热迹象。”

 

中岛规巨指出,“大中华区最大的(华为)无法生产,美国、韩国厂商以及(小米等)大中华区三大公司的订单大幅增加。”自美国进一步收紧管制后,华为的竞争对手试图分食其市场。虽然今年市场竞争态势趋于稳定,但订

单依然居高不下。

1619765101346124.png


一、沙粒大小的电容家族大哥MLCC(多层陶瓷电容器)为何被称为电子工业的大米?

MLCC是目前电子电路应用最广的储能器件,2020年即便在疫情影响下需求萎缩,一年也消耗了近40000亿颗MLCC,用量相比十年前增长了10倍,MLCC年复合增长率高达10-15%。2019年MLCC全年出货45000亿颗,随着

2021年全球经济复苏,预计今年MLCC用量将突破5.5万亿颗。


二、Q1不打烊,电子产业面临缺粮危机?

 

由于国内Q1春节不停工,加上缺料的IC和MOS管到货,电子成品制造快速消耗了MLCC库存。制造商的采购策略是,优先备货缺货的IC,MLCC属于通用标准化产品,库存成本较低,最后才会补充MLCC等被动件的库存。目

前,终端真实需求比较旺盛,工厂健康库存水平在90-120天之间,目前库存回落到70天左右,存在大量的库存回补需求。

 

对于终端厂商来说,只需通过前期的认证,便能大量采用经过认证的 MLCC,不需要为每一代终端产品的研发做单独的适配。MLCC由于用量巨大,代理商一般会根据自身库存水位提前向村田等原厂拉货,渠道方面目前随市涨

价10-25%,主要是针对散单客户。

 

原厂方面,韩系三星电机在三月份调涨了部分MLCC出货价格在10-26%之间;出货量较大的日系原厂基本很少涨价,只针对小部分产品提涨,日系原厂直销和代理销售比例在7比3,一般一个季度调整一次价格,像苹果、华

为、OPPO、小米这样的核心客户,随着采购用量增加,还会向下调整旧型号的价格,幅度在5~15%。

 

主要是日系厂商把握全球MLCC市场的定价权,可以通过技术改良开新产品线,增加设备提高稼动率,来消减成本提高出货确保收益。所以,一些新型号供货价格昂贵,老旧型号一般不容易涨价,除非停产换号。

 

MLCC整体市场并未出现2018年那样的大规模涨价情况,2018年涨价最凶是低容大尺寸产品,主要是村田TDK改组升级产线严重压缩了供给,小尺寸反而备受冷落。目前,比较紧缺的MLCC型号基本都是像01005、0201、

008004这样的小尺寸或者高容产品,单价相对较高涨幅并不明显,主要受益于终端需求的快速增长,出货量上升很快。大尺寸低容的通用型号1206/0805/0603/0402这些料供货比较平稳,价格稳中有升,跟尺寸应用类别有

关。

 

大功率充电高容产品也很紧张,例如村田的高容用在55W快充上的是现在最紧张的一颗料。而美系的威世和基美在钽电容技术领先,部分应用于军工、航天、医疗的高端电容型号比芯片还贵,由于其产能利用率比较低,运营

效率容易受外部干扰,经常会有涨价缺货的消息。

 

目前,供应链性高容型号性价比高应用广泛的是0603和0201,已从人民币10元每K慢慢涨到12元每K。

 

另外,主要是一些不可抗拒事件例如日本地震,工厂火灾,疫情复发等对MLCC供应链造成了影响,以及台湾供应链国巨、华新科联合渠道商利用资金和信息优势囤货,有操作MLCC现货市场价格嫌疑,让产业链出现暴涨暴跌现象。

 

三、MLCC用量巨增,哪些行业在拉货?

随着虚拟经济快速增长,MLCC的单位用量正在急剧上升。5G手机、5G基站、电动车、TWS耳机、电子烟、智能家电、加密矿机、智能安防、数据中心、网红智能用品是消耗MLCC的大户,主要需求增量集中在更小尺寸、更

大容量、更低功耗的高端MLCC。

 

以手机为例,iPhone 4s 单机用量约500颗MLCC;iPhone 6单机用量约780颗MLCC;iPhone7单机用量约850颗MLCC;iPhone8单机用量约1000颗MLCC;iPhone X单机用量约1100颗MLCC;最新的iPhone12 MAX单机

用量高约达1500颗。其中,支持5G毫米波频段(mm Wave)的单机MLCC用量相比4G增加20~30%;支持Sub 6Ghz频段的单机用量增加10~15%。目前,全球智能手机出货在10亿部左右,大量5G手机的上市,对供应链

MLCC用量的拉动非常明显,5G手机高容MLCC占比超过一半。

 

国内工信部规划的2021年新增5G基站数量是60万个。5G基站应用环境苛刻,从单个宏基站MLCC需求看,5G基站对于MLCC需求主要来自基带处理单元(BBU)和有源天线处理单元(AAU),其中 BBU 需要高容值电容,

AAU 有大量大功率高 Q 值电容的需求。

1619765112930035.png

此外,5G需要加载更多更高的频段, 基站内电路将变得更复杂,对 MLCC可靠性的要求也会变得更高。数据显示,4G基站MLCC用量3750 颗,而5G基站的用量则大幅提升到15000颗。和5G基站同步建设的数据中心,单台

服务器对MLCC用量增长1.4倍。

出货量大涨的TWS耳机也在快速消耗MLCC,2020年TWS耳机出货2.5亿部。以苹果产品Airpods Pro为例,一副TWS耳机的单机MLCC用量达到310颗,需求量集中于小尺寸MLCC,3-4副TWS耳机MLCC用量就达到一部

iPhone的水准。华强北白牌TWS耳机方案主用0805型号,由于今年原材料上涨较快,市场竞争红海化,主打外贸出口的白牌TWS的中小厂商在大赚一笔后,正逐步退出另寻风口。

 

智能驾驶和智能座舱对车用MLCC需求正在快速增长。传统汽车平均MLCC需求量约3000颗,油电混合车每辆MLCC需求约5000颗,Tesla每辆MLCC需求大于1万颗,高端电动车MLCC需求预估超过1.4万颗到2万颗。

 

例如先进驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)平均每台车对MLCC的需求量在2000颗到3000颗,安全系统每台车对MLCC需求量在300颗到1000颗,非安全系统对MLCC的需求量500颗到2500颗车规级MLCC在ADAS、安全系统和动力系

统这块的MLCC对高频高压高温高可靠性的要求非常高,目前主要供货几乎全是日系厂商,以高端型号为主,毛利率比较大,主推产品是高容0402和0603。国内厂商的车规级MLCC主要是非安全性的信息娱乐系统,毛利率偏

低,主要是102尺寸。

 

此外,电动车充电桩等配套设施,以及普通外卖电单车也拉升了MLCC的需求。

 

2020年下半年开始的比特币和以太坊加密货币暴涨,挖币矿机供不应求。高端矿机MLCC用量是普通4G手机的10倍,单机用量约4500颗,以比特大陆最新蚂蚁矿机S19,库存已卖到2021年8月,订单来自全球的矿池巨头,订

购规模在几十万台以上。民间挖矿主要是以太坊矿机,需要8-12块显卡,64-96颗显存,24小时不间断挖矿,主板、CPU、硬盘焊装了大量MLCC,大概在1500-2000颗左右,这些硬件成本对于暴涨数十倍加密货币而言几乎

可以忽略不计。

 

家电市场占据MLCC出货量的30%,快速起量主要是AIOT市场。扫地机器人、指纹锁、人脸识别终端、语言机器人、智能LED等智能终端市场正在快速走量,都搭载了电源模块、物联模块、智能控制模块,对MLCC被动件的用

量有明显提升,电源行业较多使用1206及以上体积。另外,计算机、存储、工控、医疗、音影市场的MLCC用量每年也有小幅度增长。

 

四、千层堆叠,日本MLCC为何强?

 

MLCC主要玩家是日本的村田、太阳诱电、京瓷、TDK、松下、富士通等。韩国有三星电机、三和、三垒等。台湾有国巨、华新科等。香港富之光、万裕。大陆有风华、宇阳、三环、微容等。美国电容有AVX、基美、威世等。

 

利润较高产品线的出货基本都是日系厂商,MLCC扩装产线用的材料和设备均需要从日本采购,建设一条MLCC大型产线最快也要18个月时间。

 

1619765120561704.png


 MLCC制造工艺上,精度越高尺寸越小代表工艺越先进,能做到1-2μm薄膜介质堆叠1000层以的厂商全球不超过十家,主要以村田、太阳诱电、TDK为首的日本企业。韩国三星电机能做到600层薄膜堆叠,1000层听说已突破

量产。台湾国巨和大陆MLCC工艺差距比较接近,最高能达到500层堆叠,其他MLCC厂商一般只能做到200-300层的堆叠。在高可靠性上,日本的工厂很厉害,有的设备30/40年都没变过,但是至今1ppm以下的失效率纪录一

直都没有被打破过。很多终端厂商选择日本厂商的主要原因是,其产品寿命长、故障低、可靠性高。

 

在容量上日本厂商也占据高容核心技术。在静电容量方面,以太阳诱电为例,其最新的小尺寸MLCC在千层堆叠后,静电容量能做到1000μF的高容。

 

中国台湾和大陆的MLCC厂商产品的静电容量还集中在1-10μF。虽然国内22μF、44μF高容产品已经有量产出货,不过产品型号不够丰富,部分高容高压仍需要向日企采购,然后自己贴片封装供货。

 

1619765127442233.png

 

产能布局上,日本企业在2016年开始放弃大尺寸低容MLCC市场,转向小尺寸高容MLCC市场。以村田为例,其手机和汽车MLCC产能比为1比1,中低端产品线只占其25%的营收,每月出货大概在1200亿只,手机高容占一

半,中低容占一般,比如008004尺寸产品供货苹果和华为5G手机。

 

三星电机背靠三星电子起家,每月产能在800亿只,主要供应消费类MLCC和韩国汽车。TDK基本不做消费类MLCC,基本是汽车工控医疗,占据车规MLCC的25%市场份额。

 

五、太阳诱电品类全,在高容高压大尺寸市场有优势。

 

国巨和华新科的客户集中在中国台湾的EMS、 OEM、SMT厂商,笔电占优势。

 

1619765136239660.jpg

 

国内风华高科主要做通用型产品,品类在国内厂商是最全的,覆盖低中高,大部分为本土电子终端客户采购等。三环主要是做大尺寸,家电类客户采购较多。小尺寸厂商是宇阳和微容,微容也是从宇阳出来的团队,主要是小尺寸加高容,主供客户有小米、OPPO等手机厂商。

 

美国欧洲方面,被动件一直被视为落后产能,欧美技术路径是铝、钽电容,在超高压高容单一性能方面独树一帜,90V~230V承40V电流,MLCC基本做不了,在军工和航天,科研,车规级和医疗级很有市场。

 

六、疯狂扩产,中国MLCC按下“快进”键

 

MLCC工厂开工率一般维持在70%左右,目前工厂稼动率接近100%,预计2021年全年MLCC出货在5.5万亿只以上,巨大的需求也引发了国产MLCC厂商的扩厂浪潮,投资总规模超百亿。

 

村田:每年扩增10%,村田目前产能1200多亿只每月,下半年能到1300-1400亿产能。工厂位于中国无锡、日本福井、出云、新加坡等地。

 

TDK:产能转向车规级MLCC,以0603型号为主,产能120亿只每月。工厂位于中国珠海、苏州、日本等地。

 

太阳诱电:每年扩增10-15%,目前产能500多亿只每月,下半年能到600亿只。工厂位于中国东莞、日本新潟县、韩国马来西亚。

 

三星电机:已完成中国天津工厂扩产,目前产能是800亿只每月。工厂位于韩国釜山、菲律宾、中国天津。

 

国巨:完成对美国被动件原厂基美并购,目前产能是800亿只每月。工厂位于东莞、苏州、台湾高雄等地。

 

华新科:目前产能是400亿只每月。工厂位于东莞、苏州、台湾等地。

 

风华高科:目前产能扩产到200亿颗每月,拟投资90亿扩充产能,产能全部落地后能达到650亿只每月。生产基地位于广东肇庆等地。

 

三环集团:目前产能100亿只每月,扩建产能140亿只每月,总投资约20亿。

 

宇阳科技:扩产5000亿只每年,生产基地安徽,总投资约22亿人民币。


微容科技:扩产5000亿只每年,生产基地云浮,总投资约30亿人民币。

 

注:本文由帝氏检测综合整编,转载请注明出处,部分图片来自网络,内容仅供参考,此文内容不应被视作法律或投资意见。帝氏检测不对本文任何信息的准确性、完整性或充分性做出任何声明、承诺、确保或保证。

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